further updates in “worldoptimization is annoyed about Efficient Market discourse”:
https://www.facebook.com/robert.wiblin/posts/884145899415
this is like, the opposite of complaining about Predictit markets on Bloomberg being wrong.
the problem there is that there’s just not enough money to make it clearly worth worrying about. that’s not a problem if you think you can predict the S&P 500! if you can do that you can make arbitrary amounts of money, limited only by your capital and your risk tolerance. sure, maybe you, random internet user, don’t have immediate access to a ton of capital. but if you’re smart and motivated, you can find ways to get it.
not just to pick on this post, but I feel like a common reaction I’m seeing is “lol, guess markets aren’t so efficient after all.” when the right reaction is somewhere between being pissed that you missed out on this opportunity (if you did), and being excited because this is an update toward you and other smart people who share your values being able to make lots of money easily